AirBlue jet down in Islamabad

[FULLTHRUST]

But it is unnerving to note that on a post on ET, 49 people "LIKED" the theory of a shoot-down.

Tailwind and Meekal - there is an urdu saying - "jitnay mou - utni baatain"!!

That eventful aircraft was supposed to land rwy 30, and to correct the people who call it a "shoot down" by aik aik fire, I would only say that when you are at 3900' std alt and have "just" established ILS for rwy 30 turning left, you are perfectly overhead of Kahuta - and you can see anti aircraft guns on your right hand with you bare eyes!! It would have been shot down there, before it entered any other no fly zone.

The aircraft as I mentioned before was sqauking AB 202!! and there is no point shooting it down in any case!!

It is quite unfortunate that people will never know about the accident investigation report, as the thaikedars of CAA/MoD think it is a top secret file, and would not allow many people to form a group and file a law suit against the airline, CAA, ISB controllers and other stakeholders etc. Basically, PAF dominance!!

[TAILWIND]

First of all i dont think in any civilized country they would leave the AA guns on automatic (if they have ones ) right in a densily populated place just 15-20 km from an active airfield used by passenger aircraft. TWO if those magic guns did fire a busrt or two, why no one in islamabad heard the shots.

That eventful aircraft was supposed to land rwy 30, and to correct the people who call it a "shoot down" by aik aik fire, I would only say that when you are at 3900' std alt and have "just" established ILS for rwy 30 turning left, you are perfectly overhead of Kahuta - and you can see anti aircraft guns on your right hand with you bare eyes!!

A little correction FT, once you are extablished on ILS 30 at 8 DME, you are about 12 Kms from Kahuta Town and ' the Kahuta proper'. and not 'perfectly overhea' and the procedure has been very carefully designed not to let that happen.

[meekal ahmed]

Guys,

I don't get it.

Why are we even speculating about a shoot-down and wondering whether anyone heard the shots or whether the guns were on "automatic"?!

If it had been fired upon, how did the aircraft end up several miles away on the side of a hill?

Unless you are suggesting it was hit but staggered on, mortally wounded?

He was hit but there is no debris?

He was hit but there was no distress call?

If the tower could see him -- at least long enough to ask him to turn LEFT immediately (if the leaked ATC tapes are to be believed), did tower observe any trailing smoke and/or fire before the aircraft disappeared into the clouds and impacted the ridge-line?

I have been mocked about my "speculative" write-ups.

THIS shoot-down theory borders on irresponsible speculation and has no place on such an august forum with so many knowledgeable people.

[Huraiz]

This shoot out story was masterminded by our country's elite of journalists,while I can't pin point or name anyone but this story was first broken by one of the big news channels citing unnamed sources.I can't remember the exact channels because I was flicking through too many channels at that time.My brother was at Air University at that time and noone from that uni heard any shots,some of them did hear the plane though.There wasn't any texts going around saying that a plane has been shot down,which in Pakistan unfortunately texting rumours is a habit these days.Last time I was in Pak a accident between bike and a van was attributed to a suicide bomber attacking a school van and this one text scared everyone in city for a bit,fortunately it was just a rumour.
My take on this accident,air traffic controllers are somehow to be blamed for this and them being military personals it's never gonna come out.Transparency is something missing from Pakistan.Just sticking to aviation,someone is always at fault at some point but it's too easy to blame flight crew because most of the time they are not here to defend themselves.It's a culture of MITTI PAO N DANG TAPAO which pervails in Pakistan.

[meekal ahmed]

Sir,

Of course ATC is a factor -- but a contributory factor in the accident. So is the weather, inappropriate crew-pairing, fatigue, fasting, low experience in-type, commercial pressure not to divert, complacency, distraction, over-confidence, spatial disorientation, loss of situational awareness, and so on.

But these are, as I said, contributory factors.

Whatever the negative/unhelpful role of ATC, it is, in the final analysis, the responsibility of the aircraft commander to conduct a safe flight (not ATC). The buck stops with him.

It is true that in many (most?) accidents the cockpit crew is not around to defend themselves. But that does not, and cannot, detract from the fact that they made a fatal mistake, or a cascade of mistakes, that culminated in hitting high-ground.

I will leave it there since I have been accused of offering "speculative" theories and my writings on the subject have provoked derisory comment. In the absence of the CVR and DFDR, that is all we can do. Speculate. But I would like to think that I, and some/many of those on this Forum who share my views, at least think that it is credible speculation.

Finally, our "elite journalists" have not the faintest clue about aviation. It is a pity that we don't have anyone who can call himself/ herself an "aviation reporter/correspondent" as they do in other countries. They deal exclusively and expertly with aviation matters.

[FULLTHRUST]

Thanks for the correction Tailwind. Though, I thought it was Kahuta area, AA guns can be seen when you establish ILS rwy 30 at 3900' around 8 DME or so.

On the automation of aircraft, I found an interesting article - read the full article on the link below;

FAA study finds serious flaws in pilot training for handling automation

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... dling.html

A significant emerging study suggests that flightcrew have never been properly trained for operating highly automated aircraft, and that for many of the problems they have to deal with there are no checklists, leaving the pilots to manage using ingenuity and airmanship.

Inadequate crew knowledge of automated systems was a factor in more than 40% of accidents and 30% of serious incidents between 2001 and 2009, delegates at the 2-5 November Flight Safety Foundation International Aviation Safety Seminar in Milan, Italy, were told.

Pilot knowledge was found seriously lacking in many areas relating to automated systems, including: understanding of flight director, autopilot, autothrottle/autothrust, and flight management system/computer systems and their limitations; operating procedures, mode transitions and behaviour; and unusual attitude recognition and recovery.

[FULLTHRUST]

I have concerns over the Captain's transition from 747-300 to A321 at the age of 60 plus. The automation and avionics in A320/330/340 series of aircraft is highly sophisticated and most modern.

There will be people here who would say, CAA flt chk passed, factory trained, and etc......read the article in the above post first.

[meekal ahmed]

FULL THRUST,

I think the training manuals and methods will be completely revised and re-written once the full accident report of AF A330 is complete as it should be in about four months or so.

On the analog 747 Vs the 'glass' A321, that is what I meant when I included low time/experience in-type as a contributory factor.

[Fazal_SKIES]

Can someone guide me about the accurate site where that ill fated plane downed. The site mentioned on "Wikipedia" shows near Damn-e-Koh just at the road side but some reports shows its far away from proper road and track... Pls also mention how much distance it have from road and how to go there from Kashmir Highway..

Regards ;

[raihans]

Can someone guide me about the accurate site where that ill fated plane downed. The site mentioned on "Wikipedia" shows near Damn-e-Koh just at the road side but some reports shows its far away from proper road and track... Pls also mention how much distance it have from road and how to go there from Kashmir Highway

better you get there in Islamabad and ask any taxi driver to take you there as most of the taxi drivers know about the site. Some of my family members went there the same way.

[TAILWIND]

The automation and avionics in A320/330/340 series of aircraft is highly sophisticated and most modern.

Now my question: Do we really need so much sophistication and automotaion in a passenger aircraft that it becomes a hazard. The FBW concept was introduced in military fighters in the quest for increased maneouverability by opting for negative stability (F-16) and then using FBW systems to provide 'artificial stability' to let pilots fly with the help of computers. Also the added benifit was to reduce the 'flying' workload of (single) pilot so that he can concentrate on combat.
I( dont think there is any such compulsion in a commercial passenger aircraft as they dont need agility of fighters.Perhaps some weight saving by elimating control cables and bellcranks.
But on the flip side this sophistication and hyper automation has (partially) contributed to many aviodable airline accidents.
Look for example at Air France A-320 crash in the trees during an airshow demo. During the last seconds when the pilot commanded a full nose up by pulling on the stick, the FBW computers actually gave a nose down command because of ALPHA protection.
A Pilot is a pilot, he is not a computer systems engineer. One tends to be bogged down by this 'normal law', 'direct law, and alternate law. In flight schools you are taught, 'pull the stick- nose gose up, push it and the sky goes up, throttle forward more power, throttle back': less power. Let is remain like this.
And FT has unknowigly supported my opinion by saying

I have concerns over the Captain's transition from 747-300 to A321 at the age of 60 plus

A person who spent his life time on the cockpit could not handle the situation because he was not flying a plane rather was supposed to manage a computer system.

On a personal level, I still love three dozen dials on the instrument panels and about 20 lights than SIX computer screens.

No offence to any one so please just comment donot fight

[FULLTHRUST]

If you really see the perspective of the sophisticated/modern glass/semi glass cockpit, it is to reduce the cockpit workload. The automation was thoroughly researched and was to eliminate the need of 3rd (flt engr) and 4th (navigator) crew members. It is absolutely hazard free. It all depends "who" is behind the operations management.

The modern day cockpits are marvel of Ergonomics. The laws incorporated in the operation of aircraft are to reduce the crew load. However, the crew has to understand the dynamics behind the switching in between the degradation of aircraft systems and their alternate functions in addition to their basic piloting skills. It is not easy for a person who has always flown an analogue aircraft all his life and at the end of his/her carrier you ask him to fly glass cockpit full of automation.

The aviation industry is safe because of the technology, and the system integration.

On a lighter note, the way my 5th grader plays call of duty on PS3 is simply amazing. I cannot do that at all.

Flying an aircraft with lots of automation is no different.

Coming back to Dr. Abbots' research -

Among the recurring handling problems pilots demonstrate, Abbott's findings include: lack of recognition of autopilot or autothrottle disconnect; lack of monitoring and failure to maintain energy/speed; incorrect upset recovery; inappropriate control inputs and dual sidestick inputs.

Regarding flight management system use, she found that pilots frequently focused on programming the FMS to the detriment of monitoring the flight path.

I can only say, if pilots use FMS correctly and proactively, they can save a substantial amount of fuel as well. It is in itself a world of automation/systems integration.

[meekal ahmed]

Guys,

We can all marvel at the sophistication of modern systems and we do. However, as we all know, too much automation despite its many benefits has degraded basic stick-and-rudder skills. If automation fails, pilots are at a loss of what to do.

It is surprising to me that automation failure is not more widely practiced on simulators. That and recovering from unusual attitudes.

Those two First Officers on the Air France jet had NO idea what they were doing and first zoomed up to FL380 at a 7,000fpm rate of climb using TO/GA power (I did not know the A330 could perform like that from FL350) and then, while maintaining a high AOA and N1 back to 55%, stalled and fell at a 10,000fpm rate of descent with an AOA of 34 degrees on impact.

As for the storm, they deviated by about 20 degrees left. The other aircraft traversing the same area that night were deviating by over 250 miles.

One pilot mentioned that the mere absense of wind noise (little forward speed) should have alerted them. The cockpit must have been deathly silent. Meanwhile, the captain just stood there behind the two co-pilots and it is unclear whether he even said anything.

Even if systems fail, Pitch + power = performance. And keep a sharp ear out for that wind noise!

It is a pity that so many people had to die. But the 'book' will have to be completely re-written.

FT, thanks for that reference. Very unnerving!

Finally, it is well to note that there are many pilots that will hand-fly to and from 10,000 feet. Others flip on the AP at 300 ft AGL and sit back 'fat,dumb and happy' (as someone said) and only flip it off at 300 ft AGL at the other end.

Oh, the site. Just drive up the Margalla hills and you will see it. You will also note the Faisal Mosque is way off to the LEFT of the accident site whereas he should have kept the mosque to this RIGHT as required by the procedure for 12 and hence clear of the hills.

[TAILWIND]

I am not against 'necessary' automation, i was just commenting on the FBW system where the physical link b/w the pilot and the aircraft is removed. After all Boeing in thier 747-400, 757, 767 and 737 could creat a two man cockpit with conventional flight controls.
With the miniaturization of prcessors, and ability to put a lot of storage space into a pin head, we have gone for and got, 'un-necessary' automation. Just this morning, while looking at my room aircon remote, I realised that out of about 20 functions, I hardly use one or two or at the most 3, the same which I used to on my window a/c 20 years back. How many of us have used all the functions on your mobile fone, digital camera or for that matter microwave?

[meekal ahmed]

Being has typically lagged behind in "full" automation while the Europeans have been more aggressive.

However the 777 is, to the best of my knowledge, FBW or partially so and so is the 787. The days of mechanical linkages is long gone.

The "physical" link may have been "removed" but there is still tactile feedback to make it feel natural.

But is that the issue?

I don't think it is too much automation per se (including redundant automation) but excessive and prolonged use of automation on a typical flight these days. Obviously if all you do is sit back and watch/monitor, you are out-of-the-loop and when all hell breaks loose you are going to be way behind the reaction curve. On a jet there is nothing worse than falling behind. Unless you have rehearsed in your mind (and good pilots will do that) exactly what you are going to do if the automatics fail/shut down.

The Air France case above is not the first case where the automatics have shut down. There have been other cases of speed anamolies, a sudden pitch-up or pitch-down (Qantas A330?) in cruise, a turn in the wrong direction (Virgin A340 many years ago) and pilots have recovered quickly.