AirBlue jet down in Islamabad

[meekal ahmed]

What has the AF crash with the wreckage lying miles below on the Atlantic ocean floor have to do with a CFIT in Islamabad with, by all accounts, a perfectly readable CVR and DFDR?

As you probably know, AF is launching a fresh search as I write.

It is not a question of keeping my cool. I am not cool about a cover-up, lies, obfuscation, denial, silence, spin, and conspiracy theories. Not to mention powerful people who are concealing the truth because it might cause them a bit of money in compensation.

I have been cool since Cairo -- the first major jet accident in Pakistan which was followed by silence.

But things have changed. Despite what one might think of this so-called "judicial activism" which, like our free press, tends to go over-board at times, the courts are the best chance the surviving family members have of receiving JUSTICE.

So, let justice be done.

I have read accident reports out of the darkest parts of Africa. The Indians ALWAYS appoint a judge and investigate air accidents and publish the report for all to see. We need to do the same. Till we do that I will feel ashamed and embarrassed for our so-called aviation authorities who are only interested in covering their back-sides, protecting the rich and powerful, and suppressing the facts.

The list of silence is long: Cairo, Taif, Khatmandu, Multan, Northern Areas, East Pakistan and now Islamabad.

On accidents before that I was too young to remember.

Enough, I say of this calumny.

[Abbas Ali]

Meekal, luckily we were able to read summary of 1992 PIA Airbus A300 Kathmandu crash investigation report released by Nepalese authorities.

Abbas

[FULLTHRUST]

Meekal Sahib,

My point was to gauge the fairness and clarity when you do the aircraft accident investigation. AF447 and AB226 are two different scenarios. They have found the Black box of AF447 under 4000 meters in atlantic today after 2 years, but it is without the memory unit. They are still working on finding it. Whereas, on air blue they had everything from the day 1. what stops them to reveal the truth, is - God knows, or the people involved in that investigation.
Towards air blue crash, it is only kept confidential as to keep the insurance payments low and to delay the consequential law suits as well - I may be wrong, but this is what my gut says!!
If you want - I can get you the official Kathmandu report, as I was formally/officially a part of that investigation!!

But , why would you want to know about Kathmandu CFIT!!

[meekal ahmed]

FullThrust,

We may be talking in circles because I agree with you entirely!

I hope the find the AF wreckage and the black-boxes (with memory). A lot rides on it.

Of course the AB crash is being kept secret because of potential law suits and penalties that could be astronomical! I believe that the family members have already lined up international lawyers. I pray for them. I hope they get justice.

I did read the Khatmandu report which as Abbas says was published by the Nepalese authorities. A small land-locked poor country had the guts to publish one too.

But, not us!

That is why I feel ashamed and embarrassed.

I would love to read the report again. Why? Just as a matter of interest.

If Cairo and Khatmandu had been published, one could argue that Islamabad would not have happened. New procedures would have been evolved (not only in PIA) with a focus on special vigilance and cross-checks when operating in and around high ground. It would have been emphasized, for example that the circle-to-land on 12 was a visual procedure and that a go-around MUST be executed if visual contact with the surrounding terrain is lost.

I don't think there was a CVR read-out in the case of Khatmandu. Was there? And was the GPWS working? If so, why was the warning ignored? Of course that must have been the old GPWS with no look-ahead capability. And the instrumentation on the A-300 was all analog with no glass (or moving map). That always helps with situational awareness -- even if it did not help in the case of AB. Which makes the AB case more compelling.

[FULLTHRUST]

If Cairo and Khatmandu had been published, one could argue that Islamabad would not have happened. New procedures would have been evolved (not only in PIA) with a focus on special vigilance and cross-checks when operating in and around high ground. It would have been emphasized, for example that the circle-to-land on 12 was a visual procedure and that a go-around MUST be executed if visual contact with the surrounding terrain is lost.

I don't think there was a CVR read-out in the case of Khatmandu. Was there? And was the GPWS working? If so, why was the warning ignored? Of course that must have been the old GPWS with no look-ahead capability. And the instrumentation on the A-300 was all analog with no glass (or moving map). That always helps with situational awareness -- even if it did not help in the case of AB. Which makes the AB case more compelling.

Meekal Sahib,

I was not even born when Cairo happened!! So dont know what really went wrong. I can certainly comment on Kathmandu one, it was a very different CFIT than AB at Margallas!! Lessons learned from Kathmandu cannot be useful in ANY case for AB crash. We learn lessons on a case by case basis!! According to the best of my knowledge, I have not seen the probable causes "similar" in two different accidents!!

Kathmandu was eventful just because of the step descent procedures. If I recall, jeppeson (were at fault as well), and they changed their approach plates just after that crash.

My copy of the report is sitting in Karachi and I am in a few weeks time heading there and would scan and share it with you. Although, it is almost 2 decades now, but still, I would like to know you personally before it goes your way!! The best way is to get along through the PM and share the communication means.
Look forward to know you!!

On the CVR issue, it was very much there and once I know you better, can share what were the last words and from whom just before the impact!!

GPWS - I am not sure (unable to recall) whether AP-BCP was equipped with the "enhanced" GPWS, but certainly when I get to my report, will be able to comment!!

[meekal ahmed]

Thanks very much.

I am familiar with the step-down approach into Khatmandu using the Sierra Approach. The aircraft was for some reason one step ahead in the step-down and hit a ridge-line. They say ATC saw the error but because of "low self-esteem" (quoting from the report) they did not call the aircraft.

This was a couple of months before a Thai A-310 (with glass) smashed into a hill around the Khatmandu area as he was going-around after getting a flap disagree warning light on approach. I have read that report as well.

The PIA A-300 did not have the EGPWS. It was not available at that time. It had the older, look-down GPWS. I don't know if it was working but should have been part of the MEL for this flight. You don't despatch an aircraft to an airport such as Khatmandu with a U/S GPWS. If it was not working, he was flying illegally. That is criminal negligence.

A CFIT is a CFIT. Each one has different circumstances to be sure but each one involves a fully functional aircraft which is flown into high ground. The American Airlines 757 at Cali, Colombia was a CFIT too. The Thai aircraft mentioned above was a CFIT. Of course there are many others but thanks to technology the incidence of CFIT's world-wide is declining.

In Cairo, the 720B piloted by PIA's No. 1 pilot, Capt. A.A.Khan basically hit a sand hill also not on his Jepp chart (according to Capt. Johnny Sadik's book).

One of PIA's F.27 in the Northern Areas entered the wrong valley and was turning around in desperation when a wing-tip hit. That would be a CFIT too. Also the F.27 that has never been found till this day. Only Taif, Multan and accidents in the former East Pakistan (including a downburst which broke the a/c in two with Capt. Safdar Nana as F/O) were not CFIT.

You are welcome to get to know me. May be we could use the private message option.

Best wishes.

[Abbas Ali]

Interestingly, according to book titled ‘Air Massacre Over Bahawalpur’, summarized form of findings/proceedings known as 'technical report' of board of inquiry into accident of PAF C-130 Hercules on August 17, 1988 was released to press on October 16, 1988.

A chapter titled 'The PAF Inquiry' in the book contains relevant extracts from that report and some other interesting chapters about the high profile C-130 accident in which all people aboard the aircraft including then Pakistan President Zia-ul-Haq and high ranking officials from Pakistan Army and USA lost their lives

Abbas

[FULLTHRUST]

Interestingly, according to book titled ‘Air Massacre Over Bahawalpur’, summarized form of findings/proceedings known as 'technical report' of board of inquiry into accident of PAF C-130 Hercules on August 17, 1988 was released to press on October 16, 1988.

A chapter titled 'The PAF Inquiry' in the book contains relevant extracts from that report and some other interesting chapters about the high profile C-130 accident in which all people aboard the aircraft including then Pakistan President Zia-ul-Haq and high ranking officials from Pakistan Army and USA lost their lives

Abbas

Has anyone read the book - "Exploding Mangoes" by Muhammad Hanif? Interesting comic novel!!

[Abbas Ali]

^ I saw pirated version of Muhammad Hanif's novel being sold at a book shop in Lahore. Quickly went through some pages and it appears to be an interesting book. Will certainly buy an original copy of the novel. In newspapers I've read positive feedback from readers about Hanif's novel.

After reading chapter 'The PAF Inquiry' in book titled ‘Air Massacre Over Bahawalpur’, it seems deliberate contamination/tampering of C-130's flight control surface/elevator booster package or incapacitation of cockpit crew through some kind of chemical agent/gas caused the accident.

The disintegration of C-130 through an in-flight explosion or missile hit was ruled out. The aircraft was intact before it struck the ground.

The roller coaster ride type movement of C-130 seen by some ground witnesses before the aircraft struck ground also indicate some problem with flight control surfaces or incapacitation of cockpit crew.

Some where else I read that American team of investigators believed that unnoticed natural wear/tear of C-130's elevator control caused the accident.

In one of the chapters of book ‘Air Massacre Over Bahawalpur’, it's stated that a box containing aircraft models was placed in the cockpit of C-130 before its departure from Bahawalpur. Possibility of that box containing some sort of chemical agent/gas cannot be ruled out. Low intensity explosion of a box or boxes containing mangoes that spread chemical agent/gas in the aircraft is also considered.

Entry of some people in the C-130 to do some repair work on aircraft's cargo door at Bahawalpur is also mentioned in a chapter of book ‘Air Massacre Over Bahawalpur’.

And, according to PAF inquiry, an experienced saboteur can contaminate/tamper elevator booster package of C-130 in 2 to 3 minutes.

Not clear whether people who entered C-130 at Bahawalpur to do cargo door repair work did something wrong with aircraft's elevator control/booster package or not.

The absence of Cockpit Voice Recorder on this ill-fated C-130 did not help investigators.

After August 17, 1988 PAF VIP flight C-130 crash, it was recommended that Pakistani aircraft operating VIP flights should be equipped with Cockpit Voice Recorder. I think under same recommendation a PIA Boeing 707 was transferred to PAF for operating VIP flights.

Results of cockpit crew autopsy are not mentioned. Autopsy results would have revealed whether crew inhaled some sort of chemical/poisonous agent/gas or not.

Abbas

[meekal ahmed]

Abbas,

I have read the book. Remember it is in some place a spoof. Unreal. The imagination.

But it is a good read.

The C-130 accident is another excellent example of a government cover-up. If we never produced a lousy commercial air accident report, do you seriously think that they were going to produce and publish this report?!

I have said it before: Liaqat, East Pakistan, Bhutto, Murtaza, Shahnawaz, Zia, Kargil, Bugti, Benazir...............what do we really know?

Just rumors and speculation.

[H Khan]

The investigation report on PIA B-707 crash over Taif, Saudi Arabia, was probably the best air crash investigation report ever conducted in Pakistan's civil aviation history.

This investigation was performed by a three-member team which was the best Pakistan had. It was headed by A/C Callaghan (Former Inspector DGCA), Captain Shuakat H Khan (Director Flight Safety PIA) and Captain Ghaffar (Flight Safety Inspector DGCA).

The Saudi Ministry of Defense along with their Air Force and Saudia plus FAA helped the Pakistani team in this report.

After the report was present by than Chairman PIA AM Nur Khan to Ministry of Defence of Pakistan the report is collecting dust somewhere at MoD in Islamabad.

[H Khan]

I know with a certainty that there was an investigation into Kargil episode and the death of Bugti. Kargil's investigation report is close to 4,300 pages. It is buried the same way Hamoodur Rahman Commission Report and export business of A Q Khan are buried.

Bugti along with 23 of his guards were hiding in caves for 11 days. One of the JCO misaimed and fired a ATM (bunker buster) on the wrong side of the cave. The blast caused some boulders to fall at the opening of the cave. The blast also caused front opening of the cave to collapse. There was no heavy machinery and earth movers available to help in rescuing the inhabitants of the cave. In fact, there was no possible of way for these earth movers to come to the cave because of the difficult terrain. PA tried to utilize helicopters to move the real heavy boulders using a cable but to no avail. The rescue team reached Bugti and his guards after three days and most of them had died of dehydration and injuries. Some of the bodies were found in a decomposed state but it could not be ascertained how long these bodies were in this state.

If you look at photos of Bugti's dead body you'll notice intact body with no injuries or wound.

[meekal ahmed]

Sir,

That is my point. The reports EXIST.

But what use is it if the best of the reports is kept secret? I am aware of Callaghan's superb reputation.

Look at the French. They never gave up on the AF 330. There was too much at stake. Today, after no doubt spending millions, they have finally located everything -- the CVR, DFDR and the memory that was missing earlier. They will de-code them and PUBLISH a report for the world to read. And they know the law-suits of "wrongful death" and "negligence" will come. Maybe Airbus will be embarrassed too and will be sued on the pitot tube issue if that is the principal culprit. Air France will probably sued as well and the compensation will run into millions of dollars.

Of course we all want to know what the two AF pilots were doing (the Captain was probably resting) when they had 36,000 feet to work with. Twelve other aircraft in the area had no problems traversing the T-storms that night.

Even Rajiv Gandi insisted that the wreckage of the Air India 747 be pulled from the sea, off Cork, Ireland. I am sure we have all read the report, including the full CVR.

Our only hope is that the courts get involved and ORDER the Ministry of Defense to publish the report of the AB accident. If not, hold them in contempt and order their arrest.

[offspring]

Air France and airbus had too much to loose. A criminal negligent manslaughter case had started against both after the crash. No such thing would ever happen in here so why should they bother about disclosure.

[meekal ahmed]

Well said. In Pakistan, life is cheap.

Had some big-shot been killed in the AB crash, there would have been an up-roar.

Sorry for sounding cynical but the only reason the F.27 crash in Multan attracted so much attention that they grounded the entire fleet is -- if I recall correctly -- some senior members of the judiciary were killed.