can anybody put light on this please?Guys whole night i was thinking about this incident so many questions were in my mind why ATC have asked to GO AROUND when pilot is making normal landing and it was few secs away second when pilot have gone for GO AROUND then why he take right instead of left according to the controller then M.D Ejaz Haroon said it was total Pilots fault because if ATC said to GO AROUND every pilot have to go around till 5 miles and airblue pilot has gone till 8 miles why?
http://www.dailypak.com/epaper/2010/Jul ... /fp-9.html
third one of the eye witness said when i have looked at airblue aircraft it was tilt to the left and trying to gain some altitude during the action he said i saw the aircraft was continually loosing altitude dont know why and suddenly it was disappeared in clouds after 1 sec he heard big boom noise and he also mentioned that there was no rain on that time you can say it was little drizzling so after so many evidence i thought maybe maybe there was some kind of instrumental or navigational problem in the aircraft that pilot knows very well why i am saying this because ATC controller said i told pilot that he is going towards Margala Hills and pilot replied yes I know so maybe aircraft was loosing sudden altitude and pilot wants to take aircraft away from the residential Area and crash there or take his chance in the empty area this is what i think but we have to wait till final investigation but guys Farley i dont think so there was some kind of serious investigation will start we all know what happened in previous matters so hope for the best will come out actual incident will come out.
what you guys will think please reply?
AirBlue jet down in Islamabad
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irfan khan
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Re: Air Blue's jet down in ISB??
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umar744
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Re: Air Blue's jet down in ISB??
salam hello today my flight A333 TG from LHE to BKK captain hard work tried to landed BKK very bad weather late 45mins 5inches water on runway and taxiway but some flight diverted other airport. after landed I talked Captain Thai pilot said yes very very very DANGER to land and take off during bad weather in Islamabad true that why Capt.Pervaiz Iqbal Chaudhry lost control cannot see window full eye view to hill. ALL pilot should NEVER fly during bad weather. Last 1998 my old friend BA 747400 G-CIVE tried attempted to land ISB 4 times diverted to KHI and he said very DANGEROUS. Perhaps maybe black cloud thunderstorm hit A321 brokeup fell off crashed down. Perhaps maybe capt.pervaiz forgot U turn overshot abort land perhaps maybe capt.pervaiz did not check ILS and instruction handbook before take off and landing. Perhaps maybe Capt.Pervaiz and copilot very tired fell sleep more than 9 hours duty??? unknow but wait and see Flight Data BUT Captain Thai pilot said me NEVER fly bad weather because IMPORTANT think save life and save passenger and save crew safe Number one. Please hope all pilot EXTRA carefully avoid bad weather.
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Abbas Ali
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Re: Air Blue's jet down in ISB??
According to TV and newspaper reports:
* Flight ED-202 commander Capt. Iqbal Chaudhry was 62 years old. He had retired from PIA in 2008 on reaching the age of 60.
* First Officer Muntajib was 35 years old.
* Karachi-based Flight Attendant Umm-e-Habiba was sole breadwinner for her family as her father had died few years ago. Before joining AirBlue, Umm-e-Habiba had also worked in AeroAsia.
* PIA and Shaheen Air are also air lifting dead bodies of AirBlue crash victims from Islamabad to Karachi.
* Flight ED-202 commander Capt. Iqbal Chaudhry was 62 years old. He had retired from PIA in 2008 on reaching the age of 60.
* First Officer Muntajib was 35 years old.
* Karachi-based Flight Attendant Umm-e-Habiba was sole breadwinner for her family as her father had died few years ago. Before joining AirBlue, Umm-e-Habiba had also worked in AeroAsia.
* PIA and Shaheen Air are also air lifting dead bodies of AirBlue crash victims from Islamabad to Karachi.
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imranzul
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Re: Air Blue's jet down in ISB??
Also Pilot did a great job by putting aircraft into the mountains rather than putting on Populated Area to avoid more causality. People are ignoring this fact. Captain was very much full of experience and then sensed something wrong. Also Ground Witnesses told aircraft was out of balance which indicated they already were aware that they are in big shit and they are flying close or in mountains.
Could there have been a technical fault with the aircraft hence the CFIT to avoid further casualties ? - as we know Captain was way out of the DME ARC for rwy 12. Only the CVR and FDR will reveal technical problems or an idea as to what was going on in the cockpit.
More questions and not many answers. - I hope the "investigators" do a thorough job as This is the worst loss of life in Pakistan Aviation.
Could there have been a technical fault with the aircraft hence the CFIT to avoid further casualties ? - as we know Captain was way out of the DME ARC for rwy 12. Only the CVR and FDR will reveal technical problems or an idea as to what was going on in the cockpit.
More questions and not many answers. - I hope the "investigators" do a thorough job as This is the worst loss of life in Pakistan Aviation.
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Abbas Ali
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Re: Air Blue's jet down in ISB??
Till last moments of communication between cockpit crew and ATC, the cockpit crew did not indicate any technical/mechanical problem with the aircraft. The ATC did not receive any distress call sent by cockpit crew.
So far, the accident appears to be CFIT due to human error - could be combination of mistakes made by cockpit crew and ATC.
Abbas
So far, the accident appears to be CFIT due to human error - could be combination of mistakes made by cockpit crew and ATC.
Abbas
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Huraiz
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Re: Air Blue's jet down in ISB??
As for investigation i believe there arent enough experts in Pakistan to do this.As AIRBUS team is coming to Pakistan,cant the Govt. ask some international agency to help in investigatio,mainly NTSB???
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EinsteinMux
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Re: Air Blue's jet down in ISB??
Huraiz wrote:As for investigation i believe there arent enough experts in Pakistan to do this.As AIRBUS team is coming to Pakistan,cant the Govt. ask some international agency to help in investigatio,mainly NTSB???
Dude, i dont want to politicize this but you are asking this from the same govt who got an investigation done by UN and everyone knows the result of that investigation.
Let’s just hope and pray that we get something out of this investigation. We as member of civil society should keep pressure on our media and politicians to get a fair investigation
Just a little note on how disappointing our media had been on this whole incident.
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Abbas Ali
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Re: Air Blue's jet down in ISB??
Human error or technical Why did ED202 pilot stray to the hills?
By Baqir Sajjad Syed
ISLAMABAD, July 28: The pilot of the ill-fated Airblue flight ED202 strayed from the normal landing approach and inexplicably continued flying towards Margalla Hills, leading to the crash.
Preliminary investigations by the aviation authorities have indicated that pilot’s navigational error could be the most likely cause of the crash. But the air traffic control tower’s role has also come under the scanner for failing to warn the pilot that he had veered off the flight path.
“It could be even a combination of both,†a member of the investigation board appointed by the government told Dawn and added that technical failure might be another contributing factor.
Capt Pervez Iqbal Chaudhry, the pilot of flight ED202, who was in his midsixties, had a lot of flying hours under his belt. But his co-pilot, First Officer Muntajib Chughtai, was new to commercial flying.
The investigations so far have established the circumstances surrounding the crash and are now looking at what caused the pilot to deviate.
The aircraft, Airbus A321, had started its landing approach for Runway 30, one of the two runways at the Islamabad airport, but because of wind direction the pilot had to turn right for ‘circling’ the jet towards Runway 12 -- something normal for flights landing in Islamabad during monsoon.
As the plane started preparations for landing on Runway 12 it had descended to about 2,500 feet and was flying parallel to the runway over Islamabad highway.
The pilot was attempting visual landing at Runway 12 because the instrument-assis ted landing is available only on Runway 30. Visual landing entails eye contact with the runway.
Pilots said the mandatory conditions for ‘a circling approach’ are to keep a minimum altitude of 2,500 feet; remain within 2-3 miles of the runway; and maintain a visual contact with the airstrip at all times.
Aviation experts opined that the aircraft’s altitude was correct, but the pilot could have faulted on the other two conditions as he continued his ‘dormant flight’ and flew much farther than the mandated distance from the runway. The best option, in such a case, they said, could have been ‘to go round’ and make a fresh attempt for landing.
There were some indications that the pilot had made a belated effort to ‘pull up’, but probably it was too late.
Sources privy to the probe said that after the air traffic controllers noted that the pilot of ED202 was going for an unusual ‘wider approach’ beyond the allowed course and had failed to take the final ‘base turn’ towards left, approximately over Faizabad interchange, they advised two other aircraft, belonging to Shaheen Air and Pakistan International Airlines, which were positioning themselves behind the doomed plane for landing at Islamabad airport, to slow down.
But the question remains that why wasn’t Capt Chaudhry alerted by the tower that he was going out of range and getting too close to the hills that are about 10 nautical miles away from the airport. The pilot had flown at least six miles beyond the minima for the circling approach.
The radar had noticed the deviation and had warned the traffic controllers, a source disclosed.
“Probably there was a communication breakdown,†one of the controllers assumed, but wasn’t sure about the actual cause of the failure.
The plane that crashed at about 9.45am had last contacted the tower at 9.43am.
There were no ‘May Day Calls’ -- distress signal -- from the pilot either, which an aviation expert said made it a perfect CFIT (controlled flight into terrain) case. CFIT is used to describe an accident in which an airworthy aircraft, under pilot control, is unintentionally flown into the ground, a mountain, water or an obstacle.
The investigators are wondering whether or not the aircraft’s Ground Proximity Warning System (GPWS) worked.
This may come to light once the plane’s flight data recorder, commonly known as ‘black box’, is recovered and analysed.
TECHNICAL FAILURE: But apart from a possible pilot error, there is also a growing body of evidence that a technical malfunction could have led the pilot into navigational error.
The fatal mistake by the pilot in continuing towards Margallas, instead of turning left while circling for Runway 12, was not the first. The aircraft had during its descent into Islamabad airport strayed into Kahuta area but was corrected by the control tower. The pilot had then switched over to the navigational system -- Flight Management System -- instead of utilising the radar facility.
WEATHER: Although the debate on cause of the crash has focussed on inclement weather, experts say it was good enough for landing, even for visual one.
The weather conditions close to the crash site were: wind 050 degrees at 16 knots; visibility at 2,000 metres; cloud base at 1,000 feet; and rain.
The minimum conditions for landing are 500m visibility and cloud base of 500 feet.
The government has appointed a five-member commission to probe the crash. Air Commodore Khawaja Abdul Majid, chief of the Civil Aviation Authority’s safety investigation board, will head the commission.
Tahir Siddiqui adds from Karachi: The Airblue said that there was no technical fault in the aircraft, putting the crash down to weather.
Raheel Ahmed, a spokesman for the airline, told Dawn that the plane was no more than eight years old and had no known technical problems.
The Pakistan Airline Pilot Association (Palpa) also said that the plane appeared to have strayed off course, possibly because of weather.
Palpa President Captain Sohail Baloch attributed the accident to the pilot’s fatigue.“The pilot may have been suffering from accumulated fatigue because they are not given adequate leaves,†he said, adding that the flight route was not a nofly zone, as was being speculated.
The plane probably exceeded the safety distance because of bad weather and the pilot might not have determined an appropriate landing route.
The airline spokesman said that the aircraft, made in 2000, was leased to the Airblue in January 2006 and it accumulated about 34,000 flight hours during some 13,500 flights.
The airline, which began operations in 2004 with a fleet of Airbus A320 and A321 aircraft, operates flights within Pakistan as well as to the United Arab Emirates, Oman and the United Kingdom.
The only previous recorded accident for Airblue was a tail-strike in May 2008 at Quetta airport by one of the airline’s Airbus A321 jets. There were no casualties and the damage was minimal.
The private airline operates six aircraft from its A320 family of short-haul and medium-haul aircraft. The aircraft have a seating capacity of 185.
The Chairman of Airblue, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, who is at present in London, expressed grief over the crash and said that the matter was being probed.
Our Staff Reporter in Lahore adds: An air traffic controller said “non-functioning†of the GPWS might have been the main reason for the crash.
“The GPWS, installed in every plane, is a system that alarms the pilot when the plane descends to a low altitude,†Arif Ali Khan, president of the Air Traffic Controllers Guild, told Dawn.
Source: DAWN
By Baqir Sajjad Syed
ISLAMABAD, July 28: The pilot of the ill-fated Airblue flight ED202 strayed from the normal landing approach and inexplicably continued flying towards Margalla Hills, leading to the crash.
Preliminary investigations by the aviation authorities have indicated that pilot’s navigational error could be the most likely cause of the crash. But the air traffic control tower’s role has also come under the scanner for failing to warn the pilot that he had veered off the flight path.
“It could be even a combination of both,†a member of the investigation board appointed by the government told Dawn and added that technical failure might be another contributing factor.
Capt Pervez Iqbal Chaudhry, the pilot of flight ED202, who was in his midsixties, had a lot of flying hours under his belt. But his co-pilot, First Officer Muntajib Chughtai, was new to commercial flying.
The investigations so far have established the circumstances surrounding the crash and are now looking at what caused the pilot to deviate.
The aircraft, Airbus A321, had started its landing approach for Runway 30, one of the two runways at the Islamabad airport, but because of wind direction the pilot had to turn right for ‘circling’ the jet towards Runway 12 -- something normal for flights landing in Islamabad during monsoon.
As the plane started preparations for landing on Runway 12 it had descended to about 2,500 feet and was flying parallel to the runway over Islamabad highway.
The pilot was attempting visual landing at Runway 12 because the instrument-assis ted landing is available only on Runway 30. Visual landing entails eye contact with the runway.
Pilots said the mandatory conditions for ‘a circling approach’ are to keep a minimum altitude of 2,500 feet; remain within 2-3 miles of the runway; and maintain a visual contact with the airstrip at all times.
Aviation experts opined that the aircraft’s altitude was correct, but the pilot could have faulted on the other two conditions as he continued his ‘dormant flight’ and flew much farther than the mandated distance from the runway. The best option, in such a case, they said, could have been ‘to go round’ and make a fresh attempt for landing.
There were some indications that the pilot had made a belated effort to ‘pull up’, but probably it was too late.
Sources privy to the probe said that after the air traffic controllers noted that the pilot of ED202 was going for an unusual ‘wider approach’ beyond the allowed course and had failed to take the final ‘base turn’ towards left, approximately over Faizabad interchange, they advised two other aircraft, belonging to Shaheen Air and Pakistan International Airlines, which were positioning themselves behind the doomed plane for landing at Islamabad airport, to slow down.
But the question remains that why wasn’t Capt Chaudhry alerted by the tower that he was going out of range and getting too close to the hills that are about 10 nautical miles away from the airport. The pilot had flown at least six miles beyond the minima for the circling approach.
The radar had noticed the deviation and had warned the traffic controllers, a source disclosed.
“Probably there was a communication breakdown,†one of the controllers assumed, but wasn’t sure about the actual cause of the failure.
The plane that crashed at about 9.45am had last contacted the tower at 9.43am.
There were no ‘May Day Calls’ -- distress signal -- from the pilot either, which an aviation expert said made it a perfect CFIT (controlled flight into terrain) case. CFIT is used to describe an accident in which an airworthy aircraft, under pilot control, is unintentionally flown into the ground, a mountain, water or an obstacle.
The investigators are wondering whether or not the aircraft’s Ground Proximity Warning System (GPWS) worked.
This may come to light once the plane’s flight data recorder, commonly known as ‘black box’, is recovered and analysed.
TECHNICAL FAILURE: But apart from a possible pilot error, there is also a growing body of evidence that a technical malfunction could have led the pilot into navigational error.
The fatal mistake by the pilot in continuing towards Margallas, instead of turning left while circling for Runway 12, was not the first. The aircraft had during its descent into Islamabad airport strayed into Kahuta area but was corrected by the control tower. The pilot had then switched over to the navigational system -- Flight Management System -- instead of utilising the radar facility.
WEATHER: Although the debate on cause of the crash has focussed on inclement weather, experts say it was good enough for landing, even for visual one.
The weather conditions close to the crash site were: wind 050 degrees at 16 knots; visibility at 2,000 metres; cloud base at 1,000 feet; and rain.
The minimum conditions for landing are 500m visibility and cloud base of 500 feet.
The government has appointed a five-member commission to probe the crash. Air Commodore Khawaja Abdul Majid, chief of the Civil Aviation Authority’s safety investigation board, will head the commission.
Tahir Siddiqui adds from Karachi: The Airblue said that there was no technical fault in the aircraft, putting the crash down to weather.
Raheel Ahmed, a spokesman for the airline, told Dawn that the plane was no more than eight years old and had no known technical problems.
The Pakistan Airline Pilot Association (Palpa) also said that the plane appeared to have strayed off course, possibly because of weather.
Palpa President Captain Sohail Baloch attributed the accident to the pilot’s fatigue.“The pilot may have been suffering from accumulated fatigue because they are not given adequate leaves,†he said, adding that the flight route was not a nofly zone, as was being speculated.
The plane probably exceeded the safety distance because of bad weather and the pilot might not have determined an appropriate landing route.
The airline spokesman said that the aircraft, made in 2000, was leased to the Airblue in January 2006 and it accumulated about 34,000 flight hours during some 13,500 flights.
The airline, which began operations in 2004 with a fleet of Airbus A320 and A321 aircraft, operates flights within Pakistan as well as to the United Arab Emirates, Oman and the United Kingdom.
The only previous recorded accident for Airblue was a tail-strike in May 2008 at Quetta airport by one of the airline’s Airbus A321 jets. There were no casualties and the damage was minimal.
The private airline operates six aircraft from its A320 family of short-haul and medium-haul aircraft. The aircraft have a seating capacity of 185.
The Chairman of Airblue, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, who is at present in London, expressed grief over the crash and said that the matter was being probed.
Our Staff Reporter in Lahore adds: An air traffic controller said “non-functioning†of the GPWS might have been the main reason for the crash.
“The GPWS, installed in every plane, is a system that alarms the pilot when the plane descends to a low altitude,†Arif Ali Khan, president of the Air Traffic Controllers Guild, told Dawn.
Source: DAWN
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irfan khan
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Re: AirBlue jet down in Islamabad
Ina lilahi wa inaileyhi rajioon. May their souls rest in peace.
What about the 'Black Box'? I've seen it in this thread. But, according to Express News, It hasn't been found yet.
What about the 'Black Box'? I've seen it in this thread. But, according to Express News, It hasn't been found yet.
So, It means they are still finding something.... Why don't they tell the media that 'they have found one unit and are searching for the other' rather than 'Nothing has been found yet'.Abbas Ali wrote:In today's (July 29) edition of Urdu daily 'Jinnah' - www.dailyjinnah.com - in news reports about AirBlue accident there's this picture and photo caption claims 'black box' recovered from the crashed aircraft.
Does it mean the aircraft had separate CVR and FDR units and one of them has been recovered and search for the other one is going on ?
Abbas
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mhansari
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Re: AirBlue jet down in Islamabad
A bigwig of the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) told media on condition of anonymity that the Airblue plane crashed on Wednesday because of ‘pressure’ fault in the plane. The pressure disc or plate of plane was not working perfectly.
Geo has posted a news item on their website, saying that a CAA official says that the plane crash was due to a pressure fault. Now, I'm not up to speed on the technical aspects, but everything theyve said about Flight Data Recorders and Cockpit Voice Recorders is complete nonsense. Or am I losing it?
Heres the news:
The CAA often warns technical staff of airlines to change pressure discs to boom pressure but technical staff takes this matter non-seriously, he said. He said that weather was not the reason of plane crash because other flights were taking off and landing perfectly. Concerned pilot could not handle the plane with dead pressure and it fell down, he said.
The second reason is that pilot was not used to the route from Karachi to Islamabad. He went from Karachi to Turkey and was handling this route from Karachi to Islamabad perhaps for the first time. There are two ‘black boxes’ of planes.
One black box is for Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) and second black box handles the main control room. First black box tells concerned CAA main faults in planes and other technical problems before taking off while the second black box is in continuous contact with control room for getting green signals. Second black box related with Control Room continuously gives green signals by the plane for landing but concerned pilot was circling rather than landing, he said.
Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) Deputy Director (General) Air Vice Marshal Riaz-ul-Haq has given statement on Geo TV that they could not find out the exact reason of plane crash. We have formed a 6-member investigation committee to probe the matter. A plane could crash due to several reasons but we would find out exact reason of crash after final report of investigation committee, he said.
Geo has posted a news item on their website, saying that a CAA official says that the plane crash was due to a pressure fault. Now, I'm not up to speed on the technical aspects, but everything theyve said about Flight Data Recorders and Cockpit Voice Recorders is complete nonsense. Or am I losing it?
Heres the news:
The CAA often warns technical staff of airlines to change pressure discs to boom pressure but technical staff takes this matter non-seriously, he said. He said that weather was not the reason of plane crash because other flights were taking off and landing perfectly. Concerned pilot could not handle the plane with dead pressure and it fell down, he said.
The second reason is that pilot was not used to the route from Karachi to Islamabad. He went from Karachi to Turkey and was handling this route from Karachi to Islamabad perhaps for the first time. There are two ‘black boxes’ of planes.
One black box is for Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) and second black box handles the main control room. First black box tells concerned CAA main faults in planes and other technical problems before taking off while the second black box is in continuous contact with control room for getting green signals. Second black box related with Control Room continuously gives green signals by the plane for landing but concerned pilot was circling rather than landing, he said.
Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) Deputy Director (General) Air Vice Marshal Riaz-ul-Haq has given statement on Geo TV that they could not find out the exact reason of plane crash. We have formed a 6-member investigation committee to probe the matter. A plane could crash due to several reasons but we would find out exact reason of crash after final report of investigation committee, he said.
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Re: AirBlue jet down in Islamabad
Airblue Website Message :
Airblue, with great sadness, announces the loss of flight ED 202 on July 28th 2010 inbound from Karachi to Islamabad. The flight crashed during poor weather and thick fog.
We regret the loss of life and are investigating the exact circumstances of this tragedy.
This will be presented as soon as possible.
Our hearts go out to the families and loved ones of the passengers and crew.
All information regarding the passengers on the flight may be obtained at
the following dedicated number: 111 247 258
Airblue, with great sadness, announces the loss of flight ED 202 on July 28th 2010 inbound from Karachi to Islamabad. The flight crashed during poor weather and thick fog.
We regret the loss of life and are investigating the exact circumstances of this tragedy.
This will be presented as soon as possible.
Our hearts go out to the families and loved ones of the passengers and crew.
All information regarding the passengers on the flight may be obtained at
the following dedicated number: 111 247 258
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Abbas Ali
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Re: AirBlue jet down in Islamabad
What exactly is approach procedure for Islamabad Airport runway 12 ?
What I understood from interviews of pilots of various Pakistani airlines aired by local news channels is that for landing on runway 12 initially the aircraft approaches ILS equipped runway 30 and after establishing visual contact with runway 30 the aircraft takes turn to land on runway's other end i.e. runway 12 and during this turn the runway is kept in sight by the pilot. Apparently, during this turn towards runway 12 the ill-fated flight ED-202 made wider turn and crashed into Margalla Hills. The turn should have been kept within 5 nautical miles but the ill-fated aircraft made turn beyond 9 nautical miles, sources claim.
Abbas
What I understood from interviews of pilots of various Pakistani airlines aired by local news channels is that for landing on runway 12 initially the aircraft approaches ILS equipped runway 30 and after establishing visual contact with runway 30 the aircraft takes turn to land on runway's other end i.e. runway 12 and during this turn the runway is kept in sight by the pilot. Apparently, during this turn towards runway 12 the ill-fated flight ED-202 made wider turn and crashed into Margalla Hills. The turn should have been kept within 5 nautical miles but the ill-fated aircraft made turn beyond 9 nautical miles, sources claim.
Abbas
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Moin
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Re: AirBlue jet down in Islamabad
I'm guessing the only plausible explanation is that when the ATC informed the pilot 'You are going away from the runway' the pilot's response 'We can see the runway' was acknowledging the fact they had 'seen' the runway and and knew where it was because it makes no sense to have left the runway behind you and then say that you can see it.
Judging by the reports and 'some' of the opinions here, it seems the pilot might have been disoriented and fatigued which is not all uncommon. Pilots have been known to have dozed off for several minutes while in the hot seat but the landing phase was crucial and the possibility of that happening here is slim as I'm sure the FO would have woken him up. He strayed too far towards the city and away from the airport. I saw several go arounds while spotting here at LHR and every a/c made either a left or right bank as soon as the landing gears were retracted and stayed in visual vicinity of the airport unless they were put into another holding pattern due to the heavy traffic coming in.
One of my flights to Isb on ED a few years back made more than one go around attempt but circled around the airport. We flew back and forth over the runway 2 to 3 times and it did become alarming, especially since PK300, also from Khi had landed just before us, but at no point did we stray abnormally far from the airport.
Conflicting reports will continue to come in. First there were survivors, then there were none. Then they found the BB, then they didn't find it. Its possible that someone confused the BB with some other piece of equipment. We can surmise and come up with probabilities till we're blue in the face and I doubt we'll know the real truth about what happened till at least 6 months.
Judging by the reports and 'some' of the opinions here, it seems the pilot might have been disoriented and fatigued which is not all uncommon. Pilots have been known to have dozed off for several minutes while in the hot seat but the landing phase was crucial and the possibility of that happening here is slim as I'm sure the FO would have woken him up. He strayed too far towards the city and away from the airport. I saw several go arounds while spotting here at LHR and every a/c made either a left or right bank as soon as the landing gears were retracted and stayed in visual vicinity of the airport unless they were put into another holding pattern due to the heavy traffic coming in.
One of my flights to Isb on ED a few years back made more than one go around attempt but circled around the airport. We flew back and forth over the runway 2 to 3 times and it did become alarming, especially since PK300, also from Khi had landed just before us, but at no point did we stray abnormally far from the airport.
Conflicting reports will continue to come in. First there were survivors, then there were none. Then they found the BB, then they didn't find it. Its possible that someone confused the BB with some other piece of equipment. We can surmise and come up with probabilities till we're blue in the face and I doubt we'll know the real truth about what happened till at least 6 months.
Moin Abbasi