AirBlue jet down in Islamabad

[meekal ahmed]

RF,

There is a HUGE difference whether it is left or right circuit! Because since this was left, the F/O can't see anything on the left side of the a/c!

The Capt. should be looking out, yes. The F/O should keep his head DOWN and watch his instruments, especially the DME. That reading should not go beyond 2.5 miles. They were at 7.5 miles or more.

Someone was not paying attention.

[Adnan Anwar]

Lets stop the blame game and wait for the FDR transcript tell what was really going on.

[meekal ahmed]

Adnan,

This is not a "blame game". You are trivializing the matter. We are interested in the truth. I hope none of us (including myself) is indulging in irresponsible speculation. As aviators, enthusiasts, safety experts or what have you, we are asking questions as to why such a senior and experienced captain who must have done this circle-to-land on 12 in none other than a 747 many, many times, could fly 7-8 miles out and into high-ground when he needs to keep it close, tight and visual.

[ABQ]

I was in sector F-7 at the time of crash, as soon as I heard the sad news I rushed outside to see the crash site but 3/4 part Margalla Hills was covered with dense clouds and I wasn't able to see anything. Hence, I doubt the authenticity of the conversation between ATC and pilots quoted by Divine, as I fail to understand how the pilot saw Margalla Hills at an altitude of 2600 feet?? And informed ATC that I can see Margalla Hills.

I think ATC should have diverted the flight to some other airport as the conditions were not favorable for a safe landing.

After visiting the crash site I feel like aircraft was flying at low altitude and Margalla Hills were not visible to the pilots, when the gadgets (like EGPWS) warned the pilots, they tried hard to pull the A/C up but they failed to climb to a safe height because of low speed and low altitude (as they were about to land) and also they were not able to see the Hills with naked eyes due to dense clouds, and the A/C shamshed into the Hills. This is my own visualization, I could be wrong.

Another thing I noticed at the crash site is that the A/C was banking left, which shows that the pilot was taking a much wider circle to approach the runway 12, what could be the reasons behind that??

Pilots might have lost the sight of runway due to poor visibility and extended the circle to get some room to make a better approach for landing.

[R.F.]

Mekel,

With out going into any long discussions, VORDME may not be located on the airfield could be displaced and not be exactly located on the airfield having little or no bearing on the approach. The protected airspace is roughly 5.28n.m for a Cat ' D ' and not 2.5n.m which is TERPS and not PANS-OPS unless you wish to negate that, moreover the circling is based on the threshold distance/timing feel free to check/confirm that.

Right or left hand circuit does not make a big difference to an experience aviator with 25000 hours, it may make a huge one to a novice.

[Shahab]

Ok guys, can you explain a bit in detail for novices like me how do you measure your distance from runway 12 during the circle to land approch.

As I understand (and I may be totally wrong here) DME (distance measuring equipment) is a beacon that you can actually tune into. Each DME has a particular frequency. You put in the frequency of a particular DME and that will give you an accurate distance from the particular fix. So can you please explain in plain english how do you keep track of how far you are from runway 12. You break off for the circle to land approch and you have to complete the circut within 5 nautical mile (if I understand correctly) my question is how do you keep and eye for the distance from the runway threshold. Where is that beacon located in Islamabad runway?

I do hope I am making some sense here

[R.F.]

Shahab, firstly its a visual maneuver so beacon / DME distance is of no bearing unless stated otherwise on the approach plate. DME stands for Distance Measuring Equipment which is nowadays co-located with an navigational aid called the VOR (Very High Omni range) hence the nomenclature VORDME.

A circling approach is a part of an instrument approach where the latter part of the approach segment is conducted via visual bearings from the runway of intended landing. Therefore once placed at 90 degrees (abeam) to the landing runway's threshold its then timed which is based on your height above the ground level. A constant wind is factored into the circling area keeping a safety buffer. Once the timing elapses the turn is initiated towards the landing runway.
As a back up only if there is a VORDME served it can be taken for reference only as it may NOT be necessarily serving the runway of intended landing, therefore can be displaced from the either side of the runway threshold providing a bearing/distance which may NOT be of much significance for that particular approach. If there is an FMS (Flight Management Computer) suffice to state that an onboard computer/tool that acts as the nucleus for the airplanes navigational, flight planning purposes etc. can be fed with runway of intended landing (in simplistic terms) and provides reference information ONLY such as distance and bearing from the runway threshold.
This is a co-ordinated maneuver done by LOOKING OUT and NOT IN by the pilot on the controls and if the airfield is not on the side of the pilot flying then has to be kept in view by the other pilot. Either pilot can do this approach from either side as it's adequately trained and by virtue of experience NOT a big deal as being projected.

The whole maneuvering is based on timing, keeping clear of clouds and visually keeping the runway enviournment in view. In airline terms NOT a huge deal as practiced and trained umpteen times with automation to assist and reduce the workload or without to keep abreast with manual handling, however during marginal weather conditions may present problems due cloud base or visibility restrictions. Hence any time the visual references are lost the approach HAS to be terminated.

With reference to this particular approach in ISB the VORDME is located on the airfield and can provide bearing /distance during the circling for reference ONLY, now what actually transpired could be any body's guess, therefore at this stage all speculations and half baked ideas are of no consequence, only the investigation shall reveal the ensuing circumstances on that fateful day.
It takes NO rocket science to conclude that there was a lapse as evident from the devastating consequences.

[TAILWIND]

Shahab,.........................

Very rightly brought out by RF covering almost everything, however if I may add, in basic cockpits with Only VOR/DME and no FMS) it used be really dificult to maintain a circling distance and one had to manually coordinate the turn and make sure no to go away too far. Simple technique was to increase bank if DME read out is increasing, reduce the bank if reducing. Nowadays modern cockpit offer many facilities to the crew especially FMS. There are dummy waypoints fed into the FMS for a visual approach wg\hich are shown on the ND and you can counter check you position through that.
However things can and do go wrong as these have in this case. Mind you inadvertant IMC at low altitude is a difficult and dangerous situation and crew is most likely to commit mistakes in such conditions which are further aggevated by anxiety, high work load, (lack of) crew coordination etc etc.

[Shahab]

R.F and Tailwind. Many thanks for the detailed description. Really appreciate it. A bit surprising for me that in this day and age you don't have a reliable distance measuring instrument that will tell you how far you are from runway 12. It is just a visual reference / check. Considering that you will be at around 900ft above ground (2510 - 1600) it sure can get tricky especially with low visibility and cloud cover (again it is just my novice opinion).

On a side note, I can sit in my car and put the post code in my satnav and it takes me to my destination turn by turn. I was kind of hoping something similar to that should be available to the pilots.

[meekal ahmed]

I know the VOR is a little displaced/ahead of 30 if I recall correctly. However, we are not talking of 1-2 miles here. We are talking of someone going out as far as 8-9 miles! If I were making this approach I would tell my F/O to keep a sharp eye on the DME and make sure I don't get too far out. I'm looking out and to my left; he is supposed to keep his head down and stay on instruments.

[TAILWIND]

...... A bit surprising for me that in this day and age you don't have a reliable distance measuring instrument that will tell you how far you are from runway 12

Well the distance info avail to pilots is very accurate. For example if rwy12 threshold coordinates are fed into the FMS, you will keep on getting your present distance to this and/or any other way point that you have selected.
Present day FMSs even automatically generate and display waypoints for visual approach e.g rwy threshold, and backwards along extended centreline for 3 nm, 5 nm 7 nm etc.

[meekal ahmed]

.......and as I said earlier keep the runway symbol in view on your ND.

[mhansari]

I was thinking that if the captain said he had the field in sight and the Margalla hills in sight was he not telling the truth? Perhaps not. He probably just wanted to get ATC off his back and not tell him how to fly.

Because if he had Margalla in sight he would not have hit it.

Was he flying and doing the radio work as well? It couldn't be the F/O speaking since he is on his right and in no position to say what could be seen on the left as they flew downwind. Maybe the captain was instructing the F/O to say what he wanted him to say. Otherwise handling the radio while flying is increasing his workload and causing a distraction.

We need to hear the CVR.

JUst wanted to point out a factor in the CVR "released" by the CAA... apologies if someone has already pointed this out. The Express Tribune website transcribes the released conversation as:

Control tower’s first warning: You are getting away from the runway.
Pilot’s response: We can see the runway.
Control tower’s second warning: Turn to your left immediately, you are heading towards Margalla Hills.
Pilot’s response: We can see that.

Now - the discrepancy lies in the pilot's final words... did he say "We can see it" or did he say "We can see that"?

If he said

"We can see it" - that would clearly indicate that he can see a specific thing ("it"), which in this case would be the hills. However... if he said:

"We can see that" - it could simply mean that he is aware of the direction in which he is head, not that he can actually see the hills. The phrase 'I can see that' is commonly used in this manner (indicating one's awareness of a situation).

[Abbas Ali]

^ Decoding of AirBlue Flight Data Recorder (FDR) and Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) will take sometime. The FDR and CVR will be sent to France or Germany for decoding process – a process which can take several months to complete, according to news reports. After completion of decoding process, details of data obtained from FDR and CVR will become available for release to media and general public which of course depends on whether government releases these details as part of completed investigation report to media and general public or not. Here I would like to add that various government officials have promised to release investigation report to general public.

The details of last moments of conversation between pilot and ATC were given by 'Express News' TV channel on July 28 and published in July 29 edition of 'Express Tribune'. Apparently 'Express News' channel and 'Express Tribune have same owner/owners.

The FDR and CVR of the ill-fated AirBlue aircraft were recovered from crash site on July 31.

The conversation between pilot and air traffic controller published by news media like 'Express Tribune' needs to be verified by some official of CAA. It's also quite possible that news media obtained information about last communication between pilot and ATC by interviewing some air traffic controller or someone from Islamabad ATC.

Usually ATC of airports also have their own facility for recording communication between air traffic controller and cockpit crew. If Islamabad ATC has recording of communication between AirBlue flight cockpit crew and air traffic controller then that piece of recording will also become part of investigation. And if that recording does exist at Islamabad ATC then there's also possibility that 'Express News' TV channel on July 28 managed to get information about last moments of communication between AirBlue flight and air traffic controller through some official with access to Islamabad ATC recordings.

Abbas

[TAILWIND]

"We can see that" - it could simply mean that he is aware of the direction in which he is head, not that he can actually see the hills. The phrase 'I can see that' is commonly used in this manner (indicating one's awareness of a situation).
[/b]

Without going into the authenticity of the alleged transcrpit, the pilots mostly use WE instead of I in ATC conversation. e.g, 'we are 12 miles short', 'we have traffic in sight' etc etc.

.....Usually ATC of airports also have their own facility for recording communication between air traffic controller and cockpit crew.....

It is not usually rather its mendatory by regulation to have 24 hours recording of ATC communication.