Hint of PIA's future network and fleet strategy

[imiakhtar]

Good article linked by Abbas in another topic.

http://atwonline.com/airlines/interview ... l-airlines

Worth reading, particularly these bits:

Give an update on the current fleet and what is needed?

Our last remaining four Airbus A310-300s will leave the fleet after the Hajj pilgrim season later this year. PIA operates 11 Airbus A320s—and that will increase to 13—as well as 11 Boeing 777s [-200ER/200LR/300ER] and 10 ATR 42/72s. These aircraft have an average age of 10 years. We are looking for additional long-haul capacity, for example with Airbus A330s. The A321 would be ideal for our needs, but it’s impossible to get one.

Where are your focus markets?

Our main airport is Karachi, but the metropolis is no longer the center it once was. The best business for PIA will be generated from Islamabad and Lahore. They are our future cities. Our best routes are from those two cities to London. Another important route is Peshawar-Kuala Lumpur. One of our biggest problems is that we don’t have a dedicated hub. Therefore, we need to create some new concepts. When Islamabad gets a new airport in July next year—which will be similar in construction to Singapore Changi’s Terminal 2—this will be the perfect facility. This will be an important part of PIA’s reinvention. Our administrative headquarters are based in Karachi, but we have transferred some of them to Islamabad.

[GEnx]

Why it's impossible to get A321.? Airblue has recently got 4 very young A321s. And if you want higher capacity in a narrow body, why don't you just configure A320s to single class 180 seats.?

[imiakhtar]

Why it's impossible to get A321.? Airblue has recently got 4 very young A321s. And if you want higher capacity in a narrow body, why don't you just configure A320s to single class 180 seats.?

1- Good option A321s are very popular. By good option, I mean A321s with a 93.5t MTOW and newer CFM56 or V2500 engines with performance upgrades (tech insertion and selec one and two engines). I can't find any listing of a good A321 for sale or lease online.

2- Popular aircraft command higher monthly leases costs and purchase costs. A new A321 will cost about $6m more to purchase than an A320 and it will cost $420k/month to lease versus $360k/month for a new A320.

3- My interpretation of the comments made is that PIA wants to replace the A310 partly with the A321. The A321 can seat 200+ with ease which makes it perfect for heavy traffic Middle-East routes. Looking at the other comments made, I think we can makes a number of assumptions which are:

- Other than New York and perhaps Toronto, Karachi is likely to see the emphasis shift to Middle-East routes, most likely centred around the A320 fleet.

-Upgraded cabin 777s are likely to be deployed on EU routes especially to MAN/BHX/LHR from ISB. LHE will probably see a continuation of a 777 flight to LHR.

- Any A330s that are procured will most likely be used on a mix of ME routes and EU/Asia routes from ISB/LHE.

In the long run, should funds become available, an A321neoLR could easily cover all of Europe and would be well suited to restart ops to the likes of GLA, AMS, FRA etc.

[uzairali]

Why it's impossible to get A321.? Airblue has recently got 4 very young A321s. And if you want higher capacity in a narrow body, why don't you just configure A320s to single class 180 seats.?

1- Good option A321s are very popular. By good option, I mean A321s with a 93.5t MTOW and newer CFM56 or V2500 engines with performance upgrades (tech insertion and selec one and two engines). I can't find any listing of a good A321 for sale or lease online.

2- Popular aircraft command higher monthly leases costs and purchase costs. A new A321 will cost about $6m more to purchase than an A320 and it will cost $420k/month to lease versus $360k/month for a new A320.

3- My interpretation of the comments made is that PIA wants to replace the A310 partly with the A321. The A321 can seat 200+ with ease which makes it perfect for heavy traffic Middle-East routes. Looking at the other comments made, I think we can makes a number of assumptions which are:

- Other than New York and perhaps Toronto, Karachi is likely to see the emphasis shift to Middle-East routes, most likely centred around the A320 fleet.

-Upgraded cabin 777s are likely to be deployed on EU routes especially to MAN/BHX/LHR from ISB. LHE will probably see a continuation of a 777 flight to LHR.

- Any A330s that are procured will most likely be used on a mix of ME routes and EU/Asia routes from ISB/LHE.

In the long run, should funds become available, an A321neoLR could easily cover all of Europe and would be well suited to restart ops to the likes of GLA, AMS, FRA etc.

2) If it costs more, it also generates more revenue, hence Air Blue has it.

PIA should submit order for a321neo. There are 1200+ sold already and it will be quite a few years PIA will receive it after it makes an initial deposit.

I think 77L should be upgraded with cabins first, considering they serve NA market which needs the upgrade the most.

A321 maybe little tight for flights to Glasgow, Amsterdam etc (seat wise). Would be better to do a332 instead, so it can have good business class seats as well.

[uzairali]

Why it's impossible to get A321.? Airblue has recently got 4 very young A321s. And if you want higher capacity in a narrow body, why don't you just configure A320s to single class 180 seats.?

I think a320 were initially done as 180 seats, but due to politicians it was forced to have business class seats. At the cost of 12 seats, they reduced economy seats by 30 (or 18). Assembly members get free business class tickets.

But yeah, it should be 180 seats. Most business class people take emirates when flying to dubai. And majority fly economy (especially workers in ME), so it'd make sense to have 180 people flying ME.

[imiakhtar]

A321 maybe little tight for flights to Glasgow, Amsterdam etc (seat wise). Would be better to do a332 instead, so it can have good business class seats as well.

The A321 has a similar seating capacity to the A310.

PIA couldn't fill an A310 to those destinations, why would they be stupid and send an even larger aircraft there?

An A332 which burns 5.5t/hr, costs 700k/month to dry lease (used) compared to an a321neolr 2.4t/hr and 450-500k/month.

No contest, a321 for those routes every time.

[uzairali]

A321 maybe little tight for flights to Glasgow, Amsterdam etc (seat wise). Would be better to do a332 instead, so it can have good business class seats as well.

The A321 has a similar seating capacity to the A310.

PIA couldn't fill an A310 to those destinations, why would they be stupid and send an even larger aircraft there?

An A332 which burns 5.5t/hr, costs 700k/month to dry lease (used) compared to an a321neolr 2.4t/hr and 450-500k/month.

No contest, a321 for those routes every time.

If PIA can't fill with a310, then it doesn't need to serve that location. Space wise, a321 is downgrade from a310. Think of the business class seats.

People will only fly a321 once then they won't anymore. A 6-7 hour on a321 is very stretching and uncomfortable. When I do 4 hours flight, i try to pick wide bodies over narrow ones.

Sure the fuel is burned less, but will the customer prefer flying on a a321 on PIA or Qatar b777?

Also it's very unfair that you compare an old a332 to an a321neo (Which is not even released yet). Even more unfair is that a332 carries more passengers and load than an A321neoLR. Obviously it's going to burn more fuel. Otherwise Qatar/Emirates/Etihad will be doing a321 to europe only.

[imiakhtar]

If PIA can't fill with a310, then it doesn't need to serve that location. Space wise, a321 is downgrade from a310. Think of the business class seats.

People will only fly a321 once then they won't anymore. A 6-7 hour on a321 is very stretching and uncomfortable. When I do 4 hours flight, i try to pick wide bodies over narrow ones.

Sure the fuel is burned less, but will the customer prefer flying on a a321 on PIA or Qatar b777?

Also it's very unfair that you compare an old a332 to an a321neo (Which is not even released yet). Even more unfair is that a332 carries more passengers and load than an A321neoLR. Obviously it's going to burn more fuel. Otherwise Qatar/Emirates/Etihad will be doing a321 to europe only.

Why shouldn't PIA serve a location simply because it can't fill a widebody?

What a stupid strategy.

Tell British Airways they shouldn't fly an A318 to New York. Go on!

I know the floor space of an A321 is slightly less than an A310. As I've told you before countless times, you DO NOT need to replace an aircraft with like to like capacity. PIA is an airline catering to price sensitive customers, business class isn't going to be a big seller and hasn't been for 30 years. You know this is the case when PIA is offering 650 pound business singles europe-pakistan.

Pakistani customers don't care what aircraft they are on, as long as it is cheap. Anecdotal experiences don't count. They look at price, nothing else. Airblue and Shaheen have full aircraft flying from MAN even though they are barebones with regards to IFE and aircraft amenities etc

Why don't you tell the NA airlines like Delta, AA, Air Canada, United who fly narrow bodies 8 hours across the atlantic that they don't know what they're doing. Afterall, according to you, customers prefer widebodies right!

An A332 will only carry more pax if there is demand to fill those seats. Hell, by your logic, why don't PIA just replace all their aircraft with A380s. Afterall, the A380 can carry 555+ passengers right!

Smart airlines which are profitable scale the aircraft with demand. An A321 is perfect for the demand from lower traffic cities like GLA/AMS/FRA.
The fact that you prefer widebodies is irrelevant.

The fact that the ME airlines rarely serve EU with narrowbodies is becuase of the fact that they CAN FILL widebody aircraft because they have feed.

[uzairali]

^

I don't know about other airlines, but the one across Atalantic by Air Canada is 5 hours abroad a319. It's the only flight. It's daily in summer but 2-3 times a week later on. Also ignoring 757s here. So I'm not sure if you're just throwing random airlines with 8 hours. With BA a318 to new york from London, it's an all business class plane (32 passengers max). Due to being business class, there is more load space available on the plane for such long flight (you know, less bags, less water need, less everything). Moreover, the seats are 72/20, something that BA offers on 787, so extremely good business class seats for a narrow body. But think about economy passengers on a 8 hour long flight to glasgow.

I don't know why you're bringing in an a380. The argument was about wide bodies vs narrow bodies on a 7-8 hour long flight.

Moreover, how is PIA going to offer 40kg+ baggage allowance on such flights, where there are extra fuel tanks on the a321? Plus additional food and water for toilets.

Also the neoLR is not even out. Present a321 can do 5900km max (With sharklets) and Karachi to Glasgow distance is about 6600km. a321neolr does 7400km.

You're comparing an old a332 aircraft with a aircraft that is not even released (and will cost significantly a lot, being new) and will not be coming out for years to come (delivery times are long) to replace an a310 that is going to be phased out in 3 months.

[imiakhtar]

^

I don't know about other airlines, but the one across Atalantic by Air Canada is 5 hours abroad a319. It's the only flight. It's daily in summer but 2-3 times a week later on. Also ignoring 757s here. So I'm not sure if you're just throwing random airlines with 8 hours. With BA a318 to new york from London, it's an all business class plane (32 passengers max). Due to being business class, there is more load space available on the plane for such long flight (you know, less bags, less water need, less everything). Moreover, the seats are 72/20, something that BA offers on 787, so extremely good business class seats for a narrow body. But think about economy passengers on a 8 hour long flight to glasgow.

I don't know why you're bringing in an a380. The argument was about wide bodies vs narrow bodies on a 7-8 hour long flight.

Moreover, how is PIA going to offer 40kg+ baggage allowance on such flights, where there are extra fuel tanks on the a321? Plus additional food and water for toilets.

Also the neoLR is not even out. Present a321 can do 5900km max (With sharklets) and Karachi to Glasgow distance is about 6600km. a321neolr does 7400km.

You're comparing an old a332 aircraft with a aircraft that is not even released (and will cost significantly a lot, being new) and will not be coming out for years to come (delivery times are long) to replace an a310 that is going to be phased out in 3 months.

Stop right there.

If you are ignoring the 757 used across the Atlantic, you need to be consistent and ignore the A321 too. The A321 has a WIDER CABIN than the 757!

The 757's used from NA to Europe and reverse can face 8 hour flights when headwinds are strong, especially the United Airlines Berlin-New York.

You can't look at the brochure specs of current aircraft and say the flight is already do-able. It isn't. Airlines don't fly great circle distances. They have to fly along airways which aren't always the shortest distance. The great circle distance of a route may be 3000nm but then you factor in high altitude airways and it becomes 3300nm. Then you add in headwinds which could give still air distances over 3600nm. The current A321 ceo or neo can't do those flights.

I brought the A380 in to show you how your reasoning is faulty. You are saying use a bigger aircraft because more seats more cargo etc. I'm saying the A330-200 is TOO BIG. When PIA can't fill a smaller A310 to those EU routes, the larger A330-200 isn't going to work.

Yes the A321neolr will use extra fuel tanks in the baggae area, however, as long as you have a seating capacity 180-200, carrying 40kg baggage isn't a problem.

The Pratt Whitney GTF is already hitting fuel burn promises and the fuel burn will decrease even further in the years to come. The A321neo is on weight spec too so we know that the aircraft will be able to do those flights.

Lastly, i'm talking about the future and the option to restart flights. GLA/AMS/FRA are not being flown to. They can be flown to with an aircraft with the performance of the neolr in the years to come.

The current A321ceo is fine to replace the A310 on flights to the ME and it appears the new boss at PIA agrees.

[uzairali]

^I'm ignoring 757 because they're no longer produced (and 150+ parked in deserts).

Give this a read: http://mashable.com/2015/01/09/boeing-7 ... HmM1byY5qF about how headwinds cancel 757 flights.

No, I said narrow body is too much for an 8 hour flight, considering they fall behind an a332 in every category, fuel, range, business class etc. Then you brought an a318, without mentioning that BA uses it as purely business class plane with only 30~ seats.

You're talking about a plane that PIA will not acquire in foreseeable future (it can't even get a321 today) to replace present a310, that's your shortcomings. The original post was talking about CEO saying it's hard to acquire a321 and here you brought an a321neolr into discussion that hasn't been delivered to an operator yet and you're on about it replacing a310 and saying that in present day, PIA shouldn't acquire a332. And yet you are able to tell the monthly lease price of a plane PIA may potentially get in 5 years to an a322 in present day.


So here's the story.

A318 flies economy across atlantic, wrong.
Air Canada flies 8 hours on narrow bodies, wrong.
A321neolr brought into discussion of a332/a321 being possible replacement for an a310 today.
You're already predicting cost of plane that is not delivered to a plane that is going to be replaced by neo variant in few years. Apples-oranges.

[hamzaafzal]

I think PIA should go for the A330's as Shaheen is also operating them to London. SO the Boeing 777 to london can be used to any other destination like Sydney or South Africa.So replacing Boeing 777 is the main thing. Yes A330 can fill up EU routes. To Netherlands and Denmark are profit routes.